Mapping yields of energy crops in Northern Europe

Willow plantations have long been considered a promising option for #bioenergy in northern Europe. But a basic question remains essential for both investors and #policy makers: how much biomass can actually be produced, and where. It is easy to speak about potential in general terms, but supply planning requires something much more concrete, spatially explicit estimates grounded in real production data.

In this study, we used harvesting records from 1,790 commercial willow plantations in Sweden and combined them with climatic variables to estimate productivity across northern Europe. Rather than relying only on experimental plots, the work was based on commercial plantations, which makes the estimates closer to the biomass that can realistically be harvested and mobilised in practice. The models were then extended to Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Baltic coastal areas of Germany and Poland.

What we found was a strong spatial variability in yield potential. Precipitation during the growing season, together with key temperature variables, explained an important part of that variation. Under high-performance conditions, average first-rotation yields were above 7 odt ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the Baltic coast of Germany, above 6 in Denmark, above 5 in the Baltic coast of Poland, and between 4 and 5 in much of the remaining study area. This matters because it shows that not all land, and not all regions, offer the same opportunity for energy crops, even within relatively similar climatic zones.

This is, in my view, where the practical value of the study lies. Biomass strategies should not be discussed only in terms of total land availability, but also in terms of realistic productivity, regional differences, and the climatic limits of the crop. Better spatial estimates can improve hashtag#energysystems planning, reduce overly optimistic assumptions, and support more informed decisions on where willow can be a viable part of the renewable energy mix.

At the same time, the study also reminded us of something important: climate explains much, but not everything. Soil conditions, clone choice, and management still matter greatly, especially in the most productive plantations. In that sense, these maps should not be read as fixed truths, but as a solid reference for planning, comparison, and future improvement. For #bioeconomy and #renewableenergy, that is already a very useful step forward.

Mola-Yudego, B., Rahlf, J., Astrup, R., & Dimitriou, I. (2016). Spatial yield estimates of fast-growing willow plantations for energy based on climatic variables in northern Europe. GCB Bioenergy, 8, 1093–1105. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12332

Where Biomass Belongs: Mapping Europe’s Energy Crops to Build More Diverse Landscapes

As Europe accelerates its shift toward a low-carbon economy, the pressure to deliver sustainable biomass is rising fast, yet the hardest question is no longer only what to grow, it is where to grow it. Fast-growing plantations and perennial energy grasses can underpin biofuels and biomaterials, while also supporting carbon storage, water protection, and soil functions. However, when these systems expand as large, poorly integrated blocks, they can simplify land use patterns, weaken habitat variety, and reduce ecological resilience. The promise of the bioeconomy, therefore, depends on spatial intelligence: biomass systems need to be placed as part of the landscape, not imposed on top of it.

A recent open-access study addressed this challenge by building one of the most comprehensive empirical pictures yet of biomass production systems across Europe. Using harmonised spatial data for 426,783 fields and stands, covering 2,140,568 hectares across 17 countries, the authors characterised seven representative systems, including eucalypt, radiata pine, black locust, poplar and hybrid aspen, willow, miscanthus, and reed canary grass. They then assessed the land-use context around each site using 1 km buffers and CORINE land cover, translating “how mixed is the surrounding landscape?” into a Land Use Diversity Index based on Shannon diversity. The result was a practical lens for policy and planning: it showed not just where biomass is today, but where it is likely to diversify, or homogenise, the landscapes around it.

The key insight was that context dominates: the same crop can be either a corridor of diversity or an engine of simplification, depending on where it is inserted. Willow stood out as the strongest candidate for diversification, with 57% of willow plantations located in homogeneous, agriculture-dominated areas, where woody strips can introduce structural variety and potentially strengthen multifunctionality. Poplar and black locust also showed meaningful opportunities, with sizeable shares of stands situated where they could add “forested elements” into agricultural matrices. By contrast, miscanthus was often concentrated in low-diversity agricultural settings, suggesting that, without deliberate spatial planning, it may do little to raise local land-use diversity. The study also highlighted a recurring risk signal: biomass areas were highly unevenly distributed, with the largest 20% of stands accounting for the majority of total area, and thousands of very large polygons, a pattern that can translate into landscape dominance when not carefully governed. A sustainable bioeconomy is a design problem, and better maps, better metrics, and better placement rules are as important as better crops.

Read more:
Pineda-Zapata, S., & Mola-Yudego, B. (2025). European biomass production systems: Characterization and potential contribution to land use diversity. GCB Bioenergy, 17, e70057. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.70057
DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.70057

China’s Rural Energy Transition: Household Pathways Beyond Coal and Firewood

The recent developments in geopolitics have been a reminder that energy is never just #energy. For decades, the global oil system has been attached to collateral developments and power struggles. As fuel becomes strategically indispensable, some states stop treating supply as a market question and start treating it as a power question.

On top of the environmental effects linked to their consumption, #fossil #fuels have been framed as national interest with hard edges. We witness in recent events: energy security slide into coercion to third countries, and sometimes into force.

In this context it is interesting to study countries aiming to buy their way out of energy dependence by changing the fuel itself. Instead of competing for oil’s geography, the route to independence goes through millions of small, local energy decisions. Decisions which at the same time suppose a cleaner alternative, from solar for electricity, #bioenergy heating options, and the gradual replacement of #coal and #oil.

China has increased significantly and consistently the share of renewables in the energy mix, achieving simultaneously energy independence and lower carbon emissions. The #energy #transition has started in the cities, but has also reached rural areas, and while it is often discussed in terms of grids and powerplants, the real shift happens at household level too. That creates a practical policy question: where do traditional fuels still dominate, and which levers can accelerate cleaner options without ignoring local realities?

In Chinese rural areas, #coal (76%) and biomass residues, especially tree branches, #firewood (84%) and #crop #residues (38%), remain central for cooking and heating. The use of LPG is, however, limited (24%) and strongly concentrated. Our future projections suggest solar uptake could expand substantially, alongside a decline of up to ~50% in coal and firewood if supportive conditions continue. Subsidies and awareness matter, and familiarity with key renewable policies is still low in some counties, which points to information gaps as a real barrier, not just income or technology.

Region-specific strategies, combining solar and biogas diffusion with smarter, cleaner use of agricultural and forestry residues for local bioenergy, backed by targeted incentives and outreach, are setting the ground for a fast energy transition in rural China, with global geopolitical and climatic effects.

Read the PDF here

Xu, X., Li, Q., Khanam, T., Selkimäki, M., Liu, G., & Mola-Yudego, B. (2025). Rural Energy Consumption in Central China: Regional Patterns, Socioeconomic Influences, and Pathways to Sustainability. Food and Energy Security, 14, e70176. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.70176

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Universities Scientific Fund, the Research Council of Finland mobility programme and UNITE flagship.